“This is not a second wave, but a recklessness.” Prepare for one of the three scenarios
After the marked increase in Corona virus infections in Lebanon and the talk about the possibility of closing the country for 48 hours, there were conflicting reports about the reality of what Lebanon is witnessing.
In a press interview, the Vice-Chairman of the Lebanese Scholars Committee for Combating Corona, Dr. Muhammad Hamiyyah, expected that we will reach the number of infections at around thousands at the end of this month, pointing out that what is happening “is not a second wave of the epidemic, but rather the result of recklessness that occurred in the past days and we are reaping its results today” . He said that breaching the stage of “digital stability” would delay the cases of full recovery to the next July 20, calling for caution in the coming days.
3 scenarios for the continued “Corona” outbreak … and these are the dates of the following waves!
The second Corona wave is the conversation of the Lebanese .. This is its date and these expected scenarios
For her part, Petra Khoury, advisor to the Prime Minister for Health Affairs, asked on her Twitter account about the scenario that Lebanon will witness.
Which scenario will hit Lebanon? # COVID19 will stay with us for months. Our future can be one of many scenarios! Social gatherings at homes will hurt us. # Stay in home Until a treatment & vaccine or widespread immunity is achieved; we remain in danger # Lebanon_finish # Ramadan_ Mubarak
Khoury published 3 graphs of 3 possible scenarios prepared by the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota (extending from this year to 2022). Khoury asked: “What scenario will strike Lebanon? COVID19 will stay with us for months. Our future can be a manifestation of one of many scenarios! Social gatherings in homes will harm us. Risk.”
The first scenario talks about the possibility of infections increasing and then receding over time, provided that the numbers of infections are relatively equal, after the start of the first wave of the virus. As for the second scenario, it documents a peak in infections in the fall or winter season, followed by light waves of the virus; note that this scenario occurred during the outbreak of the Spanish flu between 1918 and 1919. In the third and final scenario, he documents a peak of infections in the spring, followed by light waves of the virus. It is noticeable that the peaks of the subsequent waves are of equal height on the one hand, and significantly less elevation compared to the peak of the spring, on the other hand.
Yesterday, the Corona meter closed after 810 injuries, after the Rafic Hariri Governmental Hospital announced at night that one of 160 examinations was recorded, while the number of recovery cases reached 243. With stability at 26 deaths, the number of actual injured is currently 549.
Source: Lebanon 24